Seven questions for the G7: New Superforecasting report assesses critical climate fragility risks
What risks for peace and stability does the climate crisis entail? As G7 Foreign Ministers meet to discuss pressing crises including climate change and the war in Ukraine, a new report uses Superforecasting to analyse the questions they need to ask now to avert the crises of the future.
Berlin, 12 May 2022. In order to inform anticipatory action, a new study, „Seven questions for the G7. Superforecasting climate-fragility risks for the coming decade“, sets out some of the most important questions. To gauge what to expect over the next 10 years, the thinktank adelphi teamed up with Good Judgment, the world’s most accurate geopolitical and global risk forecasting entity. Published by the Weathering Risk initiative, the study uses the unsurpassed track record of the Superforecasters to help convert the uncertainty of geopolitics amidst the climate crisis into manageable risks. It sets out seven key questions which should be on the G7’s agenda, such as:
– How and where will climate change fuel instability across fragile settings around the world?
– How much and where will food prices fuel instability across fragile settings around the world?
– Where will stresses on water governance increase security risks?
If tackled in time, appropriate responses to these seven questions could significantly reduce the risks that climate change entails for peace and stability. Lucas Destrijcker, report co-author and advisor at adelphi, which co-leads Weathering Risk, said: “The escalation of extreme climate change impacts in recent years shows us that the past is no longer a reliable indicator of the future. Working with expert Superforecasters allows us to look into the unknown and offer meaningful recommendations to the G7 that will help stave off some of the worst possible outcomes.”
Forecasters find that climate change will contribute significantly to global instability in the next decade, particularly in already fragile settings. Climate change will continue to contribute to massive levels of displacement in regions like Central Africa and the Horn of Africa. Forecasters also warn of increased fragility in megacities in lower-income countries, of food price spikes in import dependent contexts and significant risk of violent conflict linked to water resources. They also expect climate action to fall short over the next decade.
Such outcomes are far from inevitable, however, and the report suggests ways that the G7 could act to avert the worst. Janani Vivekananda, co-author and head of climate diplomacy and security at adelphi, said: “Whilst its findings are undeniably grim, the report identifies priority ‚low regrets‘ or ’no regrets‘ actions that the G7 could take now to avoid costly mistakes or climate-related security crises in the future.”
Benjamin Pohl, co-author and head of climate diplomacy and security at adelphi emphasized: “The cost of inaction on these risks is far higher than the cost of action. The international community can and must scale up action on climate change as well as its negative cascading effects on socio-economic and political stability. And the G7 should embrace responsibility for leading these efforts.”
Download the report: Seven questions for the G7. Superforecasting climate-fragility risks for the coming decade at https://adelph.it/WeatheringRiskG7Questions
For more information, please contact:
Dr. Wilhelm Mirow
+49 30 8900068-275
adelphi is the leading independent think-and-do tank in Europe for climate, environment and development. We are some 280 strategists, thought leaders and practitioners working at the local and global levels to find solutions to the most urgent political, economic and social challenges of our time. As a policy consultancy, we support a just transition towards carbon neutrality and sustainable, liveable societies. Our work is grounded in transdisciplinary research, evidence-based consulting and stakeholder dialogues. With these tools we shape policy agendas, facilitate political communication, inform policy processes and support decision-makers. https://www.adelphi.de/en
About Good Judgment
Good Judgment Inc, the world’s most accurate geopolitical and geo-economic forecasting entity. Good Judgment Inc is the outgrowth of a four-year, $20 million research project run by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence to see whether crowd-sourced forecasting approaches could deliver more accurate forecasts than existing approaches. The result was decisively positive, with Good Judgment’s methodology generating up to an 85% increase in accuracy. www.goodjudgment.com
About Weathering Risk
Weathering Risk, led by adelphi and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), unites state-of-the-art climate impact data and expert conflict analysis to promote peace and resilience in a changing climate. This multilateral initiative is developing analysis, tools and trainings grounded in geographically and thematically focused climate security risk assessments. With these, Weathering Risk facilitates risk-informed planning, enhances capacity for action and improves operational responses that promote climate resilience and peace. www.weatheringrisk.org
Lena Devlen; Lucas Destrijcker; Warren Hatch; Michael Hornsby; Marc Koehler; Hannah Kurnoth; David McCullough; Benjamin Pohl; Janani Vivekananda 2022: Seven questions for the G7. Superforecasting climate-fragility risks for the coming decade. Good Judgment. Published by adelphi.