Ukraine Support Tracker: Aid Could Drop Significantly From 2025
Ukraine is facing uncertain times regarding continued support from its Western allies. A second term for Donald Trump as US President or leaning on new lending schemes such as the proposed Russian frozen asset or NATO contributions as a replacement for European aid could severely undermine Ukraine. Meanwhile, aid increased during the summer months compared to the spring, driven primarily by funds aimed at stabilizing Ukraine’s economy. This is shown in the latest update of the Ukraine Support Tracker, which tracks aid through August 2024.
In total, Ukraine received approximately €14.6 billion in aid allocations from Western donor countries during the summer months of July and August. However, the type of aid varied significantly between months.
In July, the majority of aid, totaling €5.5 billion, was military in nature. In contrast, August saw a focus on financial aid for economic stabilization and reconstruction, with €7.9 billion allocated. A major contribution came from the EU’s Ukraine Facility, which provided €2.8 billion in loans and €1.5 billion in grants. The US contributed €3.5 billion in financial aid, primarily through the World Bank. By comparison, humanitarian aid remained modest, with €0.2 billion in July and less than €0.1 billion in August.
“Reconstruction aid and humanitarian aid are crucial, but these purposes remain surprisingly small. With the nearing winter, Western countries should start ramping up their help on reconstruction, especially of critical infrastructure and energy systems targeted by Russia,” says Pietro Bomprezzi, project lead of the Ukraine Support Tracker at the Kiel Institute.
However, starting next year, Ukraine could face a significant shortfall in aid. A new US President Donald Trump could block further aid packages in Congress. Additionally, Germany announced recently to cut its budgetary allocation by 50 percent, other European donors might follow. European aid could then be replaced with NATO contributions or loans based on the proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
Estimations based on recent trends in aid allocations show that, if Western donors maintain their current level of effort, total aid next year would amount to just over €100 billion, with almost €59 billion in military aid and €54 billion in financial support.
Without new US aid packages, military aid could drop to around €34 billion, while financial aid would fall to around €46 billion. Should European donors also scale back their efforts and follow Germany’s recent announcement to halve their contributions, military aid would shrink to just €29 billion, with financial aid dropping to approximately €27 billion. Under this scenario, total aid to Ukraine could therefore be halved to around €55 billion.
Additional funding vehicles like recently discussed new NATO-coordinated contributions could provide €40 billion in military aid. Loans based on the proceeds from frozen Russian assets are for now in discussion to equal up to €45 billion, most of which would be for direct financial assistance.
“The recently discussed new funding vehicles aren’t particularly large. If they are approved, they would offer valuable assistance but could prove to be just stopgap measures,” says Bomprezzi. “As of now these funds would not fully replace the steady bilateral aid that Ukraine needs.”
About the Ukraine Support Tracker
The Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) lists and quantifies military, financial, and humanitarian aid pledged to Ukraine since January 24, 2022 (currently through August 2024). It covers 40 countries, specifically the EU member states, other members of the G7, as well as Australia, South Korea, Turkey, Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, China, Taiwan, and India. Also, EU institutions are included as a separate donor. The tracker lists government-to-government commitments; private donations or those from international organizations such as the IMF are not included in the main database. Flows going into other countries like, for example, Moldova, are not included.
With regard to sources, the database combines official government sources with information from international media. Aid provided in kind, such as medical supplies, food, or military equipment, is quantified on the basis of market prices or information from previous crises involving government aid. In case of doubt, upper bounds of prices are used.
The Ukraine Support Tracker is constantly being expanded, corrected, and improved. Suggestions are very welcome and can be sent to ukrainetracker@ifw-kiel.de.
More information and detailed data can be found on this webpage: Ukraine Support Tracker (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/).
For more information on the Ukraine Support Tracker methodology, read this working paper (https://www.ifw-kiel.de/de/publikationen/the-ukraine-support-tracker-which-countries-help-ukraine-and-how-26300/).
Media Contact:
Mathias Rauck
Press Officer
T +49 431 8814-411
mathias.rauck@ifw-kiel.de
Kiel Institute for the World Economy
Kiellinie 66 | 24105 Kiel | Germany
T +49 431 8814-774
E ifw-medien@ifw-kiel.de
www.ifw-kiel.de
Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Pietro Bomprezzi
International Finance
T +49 431 8814-229
pietro.bomprezzi@ifw-kiel.de
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