Research results, Scientific Publications

The state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg have caused political upheaval. Exploratory talks are now underway. An interdisciplinary study as part of the Volkswagen Foundation's NurtureDEMOS project at Trier University and the Centre for Research on Right-Wing Extremism, Democracy Education and Social Integration (KomRex) at Jena University has recorded and analysed attitudes and voting behaviour in the states in the run-up to state elections. The study offers insights from both political science and psychology into the crisis of democracy.

Distrust in state institutions is nothing new among non-voters and on the political fringes. However, the fact that two thirds of these groups state that they have little or no trust in the state shows how massive the mistrust is in this section of the population. After all, the AfD's share of the vote in all three recent state elections was around 30 per cent. The proportion of non-voters was once again over 25 per cent and voters of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) are also distrustful: ‘Voters of the CDU, SPD, Greens, FDP and Left have more trust than distrust in all institutions - except the federal government. The opposite is the case for AfD and non-voters. BSW voters show increased mistrust of public broadcasting in particular,’ says political scientist Dr Anna-Sophie Heinze from Trier University.

However, the study also reveals another direct threat to democracy. AfD voters are not only critical of democratic institutions or the current organisation of democracy in Germany. A significant proportion of them reject democracy as a form of government. ‘This result, which already came to light in the ARD Deutschlandtrend, shows the progression of anti-democratic tendencies within the party and its supporters,’ analyses the survey team. Prof Dr Eva Walther, who researches the psychology of right-wing radicalisation at Trier University, sees the reasons for this not only in the subjectively perceived socio-economic disadvantages of AfD voters: ‘There is a fundamentally strong dissatisfaction among AfD voters, which is also expressed in strong emotions such as anger, but also fear.’

According to the study, voting behaviour in East German states points to a strengthening of the political fringes and forces critical of democracy. In contrast to the 2021 federal election, there was a greater voter movement from the established parties to the AfD and the newly founded BSW. Voter loyalty to a particular party has always been significantly lower in East German states than in West German states. However, the current study shows that the AfD now has the highest proportion of regular voters. ‘For the 2025 federal elections, this could mean that the AfD will become a popular party in East Germany. This will make it even more difficult to form a government in the future,’ says Prof Dr Tobias Rothmund from Jena University.

Speaking of government formation: There is still no end in sight to the ongoing exploratory talks. The study by KomRex and Trier University shows that the population in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg answered the question on the best-fitting coalition partner with ‘CDU’. In Brandenburg, the SPD and BSW scored similarly to the CDU, while in Saxony and Thuringia they came second and third by a larger margin. The AfD came fourth in Brandenburg and Saxony and fifth in Thuringia, behind the Left Party. This clearly shows that only AfD supporters see the AfD as a government partner. The majority of voters of all other parties reject a coalition with the AfD. However, it is unclear whether the electorate's coalition wishes will prevail in the upcoming formation of governments in the federal states.

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Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Dr Anna-Sophie Heinze
Political Science
Tel: +49 651 201-2184
E-Mail: heinzea@uni-trier.de

Prof Dr Eva Walther
Social Psychology
Tel: +49 651 201-2864
E-Mail: walther@uni-trier.de

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Originalpublikation:
https://www.komrex.uni-jena.de/komrexmedia/5280/policy-paper.pdf