Research results

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What for?

The war in Ukraine has caused extensive damage to the country’s infrastructure, with the power grid being particularly affected. Given its critical role in supporting hospitals, basic services, the economy, and the military, a rapid reconstruction of the power system is crucial for restoring normal life in Ukraine. The study’s findings can serve as a basis for investment decisions by policymakers and financial institutions involved in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
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Since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, systematic attacks have been launched on the Ukrainian power system, targeting large power plants and the transmission network. An international research team, with the participation of Professor Marie-Louise Arlt, Junior Professor for Business Informatics and Connected Energy Storage at the University of Bayreuth and a member of BayBatt, has now created a comprehensive, georeferenced map of Ukraine’s power system prior to the war and its destruction throughout the conflict. The team also calculated the potential for renewable energy in Ukraine and assessed how renewables could replace the damaged infrastructure.

Their findings show that, since February 2022, about 71% of Ukraine’s power generation capacity has been either damaged or occupied, reducing the country’s total power capacity to roughly one-third of its pre-war level. The eastern part of Ukraine, where the largest power plants are located, has been especially hard-hit, though attacks on power infrastructure, including substations, have occurred across the country.

“Our study analyses the scale of destruction in Ukraine’s power system and highlights the essential role that renewable energy can play in rebuilding. This not only reduces dependencies and makes the power supply more resilient to attacks, but it also marks another step towards the energy transition,” says Professor Arlt. Together with researchers from ETH Zurich and the Technical University of Munich, she evaluated, interpreted, and visualised the data collected in Ukraine.

Significant Potential for Renewable Energy

The researchers defined four criteria for rebuilding Ukraine’s power grid: 1) Reconstruction of power generation capacity must be rapid. 2) The new infrastructure should be more resilient to attacks. The previous power supply relied on large, centralised power plants that are vulnerable military targets. 3) The new power infrastructure must be independent of fuel imports such as gas, coal, or uranium from Russia. 4) The new infrastructure should have lower emissions than the previous one, making it attractive to international investors. According to the researchers, only wind and solar energy meet these criteria for Ukraine.

Wind turbines have an average construction time of twelve months, significantly shorter than the 90 months required for nuclear power plants. Additionally, the modular structure of renewable energy installations allows for a decentralised power system, reducing vulnerability to targeted attacks. Wind turbines and solar panels can be imported independently of Russia, and once installed, power generation is completely import-independent. Another benefit is the zero-emission power generation from wind and solar, making Ukraine a more attractive partner for the EU and OECD countries, especially in light of the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and carbon certificates.

The researchers calculated an enormous potential for wind and solar power: with 219 gigawatts of potential installed capacity, renewables far exceed Ukraine’s previous generation capacity of 59 GW. Regionally, the greatest potential for both technologies is in the south and east of Ukraine.

The study’s results were achieved in collaboration with researchers from ETH Zurich, the Technical University of Munich, and the Department of Electrical Power Engineering at the Ivano-Frankivsk National Technical University of Oil and Gas (IFNTUOG), Ukraine.

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Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Prof. Dr. Marie-Louise Arlt
Information Systems Research, in particular on Connected Energy Storage
University of Bayreuth
Phone: +49 (0)921 / 55-4975
Mail: arlt@uni-bayreuth.de

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Originalpublikation:
Why Renewables Should Be at the Center of Rebuilding the Ukrainian Electricity System. Iryna Doronina, Marie-Louise Arlt, Marcelo Galleguillos Torres, Vasyl Doronin, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Tobias S. Schmidt, Florian Egli. Joule (2024)
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2024.08.014