Collapse of the traffic light coalition: “Dreams of quick new elections are illusory.”
In this interview, Freiburg political scientist Uwe Wagschal talks about the significance of the collapse of the ‘traffic light’ coalition, the planned new elections and how the political situation in Germany will change until then and beyond.
- What does the collapse of the coalition mean for Germany?
The Federal Republic of Germany hasn’t had a true minority government at federal level since 1949. In cases where there was no clear majority or governing parties lost their majority, either new coalitions were formed or new elections were held. In general, transitional and minority governments are characterised by political weakness, uncertainty and little room for manoeuvre. And therefore not desirable. Urgent projects such as the upcoming supplementary budget for 2024 and the regular budget for 2025 should actually be passed quickly, as planned in November. In general, legislation is becoming almost impossible. However, there are hardly any restrictions on administrative action, unless there is no budget for the coming year. Things could get worse if the economic crisis intensifies or new dramatic crises arise. Legislative action would then be needed quickly.
- What is your opinion about the vote of confidence to dissolve the Bundestag?
This would be the fourth time in Germany that losing a vote of confidence has led to early elections. In total, a vote of confidence has been called five times so far. Three times, the Federal Chancellor lost the vote and new elections were held. From the spring of 1972, Willy Brandt no longer had a majority in the Bundestag following several FDP members switching to the CDU. He called a vote of confidence in September and new elections were held in November. After the FDP left Helmut Schmidt’s SPD-led government in 1982, the new Federal Chancellor Helmut Kohl called a vote of confidence in December 1982, after which new elections were held on 6 March 1983. The third time a vote of confidence was lost was in 2005, when Gerhard Schröder, after losing a state election in North Rhine-Westphalia, called for a vote of confidence in July 2005. This was not necessary as his government majority was not affected. Nevertheless, a new election was held in September 2005, which he lost to Angela Merkel. All three cases required a similar or even longer period of time from the beginning of the government crisis to the election than the scenario now proposed by Olaf Scholz. So, there’s hardly a question of [him] delaying the election date.
- To what extent will the transitional government be able to act until new elections are held?
The remaining government consisting of the SPD and the Greens sees itself less as a transitional government and more as a minority government. There’s a difference here, as the latter still wants to shape policy and push through its own projects. But this will be difficult in view of the lack of a legislative majority. The government’s lifespan will be short-lived. In international terms, however, there are numerous minority governments that have been in office for longer, such as in Sweden, Canada, Denmark and currently also in Spain and France. In France, the Barnier government currently has just under 37 per cent of MPs behind it. Minority governments like this are more common at state level; in Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow’s minority government has lasted over four and a half years. In general, minority governments are alien to the German system because they need the support of other parties or at least toleration. However, there’s no prospect of this and it won’t arise.
- In your view, what important steps can be taken by the government and the opposition now?
Firstly, the supplementary budget for 2024 and the federal budget for 2025 should be adopted so that the government remains capable of acting in the coming year. A consensus should then be reached quickly on an election date that takes into account the deadlines in the Basic Law, the electoral law and the rights of small political parties. In addition, the government should not attempt to stuff posts with its officials and political representatives.
- How do you view the early elections?
In my view, dreams of a quick re-election are illusory. If the Federal Chancellor calls a vote of confidence, there will be a vote two days later. Then the Federal President has another 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag and after 60 days at the latest - according to the constitution - there can be new elections. That makes a maximum of 83 days in total. However, this ignores the fact that there are also regulations in the electoral law that are relevant for a Bundestag election. For example, parties must notify the Federal Returning Officer in writing of their participation in the election no later than 97 days before the election. This means that the election date must be known significantly more than 97 days in advance so that the parties can discuss and communicate their democratic right to participate in the election.
On top of this comes the process of putting together candidates and lists. The major parties are already well ahead here because elections are scheduled for autumn 2025. But the smaller parties aren’t. Finally, the Federal Returning Officer must also be given time to approve the parties for the election. He must announce which parties are allowed to run no later than 79 days before the election. Last time there were 47 parties at the start, and only those parties that have more than 5 members of parliament in the Bundestag or a state parliament are exempt from the procedure. So the organisation of an election takes time and is subject to deadlines, something those in favour of a quick election date should be aware of. Anyone who wants anything else risks having the election contested by the Federal Constitutional Court. So it’s a reasonable timetable.
- How will the political situation in the country change before and after the election?
Politics will become even more polarised. The tone will become harsher, and this can already be seen. Looking at the last state elections, the European elections and the elections in other major democracies, we can expect the following: the political fringes will become stronger. Economic issues such as taxes, migration and national debt will become much more important again. Environmental and climate protection and ‘woke’ issues, on the other hand, will lose some of their importance. Party-political fragmentation will remain high and could increase, and this could lead to many parties failing to reach the five per cent threshold.
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Weitere Informationen:
https://uni-freiburg.de/en/political-scientist-uwe-wagschal-on-the-collapse-of-the-traffic-light-coalition-dreams-of-quick-new-elections-are-illusory/
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