Ukrainians at Home Show Lower Desire to Emigrate Permanently and Stronger Expectations of Recovery
Among Ukrainians who remain in the country, the desire to migrate permanently abroad has fallen sharply at the start of the full-scale war. It still remains far below pre-war levels. That is the result of new research from RFBerlin based on Gallup polls in the country. Before 2022, roughly 30–35 percent of Ukrainian adults said they would like to move permanently abroad if given the opportunity. In 2022, that share dropped to about 9.5 percent. By 2023–2024 the figure had recovered only modestly to around 13–15 percent. That is still less than half the pre-war average. The decline is broad-based, visible across regions, age groups, gender, and marital status.
“Our findings challenge the common assumption that war automatically increases the desire to leave permanently,” says Christian Dustmann, co-author of the report and Professor at University College London. “Among those who remain in Ukraine, we observe a sharp and persistent decline in permanent emigration aspirations after the onset of the war. The compositional changes due to refugee outflows alone cannot explain the magnitude of the drop in migration desire. It is likely that that external threats heighten the salience of group membership and strengthen in-group identification.”
“In the context of war, individuals may place greater weight on national belonging, solidarity, and perceived obligations toward the collective. This can reduce the appeal of exit even when material conditions deteriorate”, adds co-author Tommaso Frattini, Professor of Economics at the University of Milan
At the same time, while satisfaction with current life declined after 2022, expectations about life in five years increased markedly relative to present evaluations. This has produced a historically large difference between current and expected life satisfaction that has remained elevated through 2024.
Expectations about life five years ahead improved relative to current conditions, suggesting that migration preferences are shaped not only by immediate hardship, but also by beliefs about recovery and the country’s future.
The study draws on annual Gallup World Poll data for 2007–2024, based on nationally representative samples of Ukrainian residents.
Germany remains the most frequently named desired destination across most regions in Ukraine, consolidating its position after 2022, while Poland has become particularly prominent in the West of the country.
Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Prof. Christian Dustmann, 0044/ 7818 048 380; cd@rfberlin.com
Prof. Tommaso Frattini, 0039/ 347/ 640 38 45; tf@rfberlin.com
Originalpublikation:
Four Years On: What Gallup Data Reveal About Staying, Leaving, and Life Expectations in Ukraine by Christian Dustmann, Tommaso Frattini, Camilla Piovesan. Based on Gallup World Poll, 2007–2024. Published here: https://www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/CReAMRFBerlin-RepFeb2026.pdf
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