Research results

Climate change is contributing to the escalation of existing local conflicts in Africa. A new WZB study by Ruud Koopmans, Daniel Meierrieks, and Daniel Tuki uses the example of pastoralist conflict between nomadic herders (mainly Muslim Fulani) and sedentary farmers in Nigeria to show how droughts triggered by climate change exacerbate existing religious conflicts. However, dry spells do not automatically lead to more violent clashes over land and scarce resources. Violence becomes significantly more likely only in areas where Muslim herders encounter a predominantly Christian population.

Ruud Koopmans, Director of the Research Department Migration, Integration, Transnationalization, WZB Postdoc Daniel Meierrieks, and Daniel Tuki analyzed data for approximately 300 areas in Nigeria from 1997 to 2020 for their study. The occurrence of droughts was determined using a standardized index, and the religious composition of the population in each region was assessed based on the number of churches and mosques. In addition, the authors conducted their own survey in Kaduna State in central Nigeria.

The empirical analysis provides evidence that the occurrence of droughts does not increase the likelihood of conflicts between herders in parts of the country where Muslim herders face a predominantly Muslim sedentary population. Where the potential for interreligious tensions exists (i.e., in predominantly Christian parts of Nigeria), more violent conflicts occur regardless of climate change. However, droughts significantly intensify violence between herders and other population groups. This means that the negative interaction between droughts and religious tensions creates particularly favorable conditions for the emergence of conflicts.

The survey in Kaduna complements these findings: Christian respondents are more likely to attribute the conflict over grazing land to religious causes, and they distrust the Muslim Fulani more strongly. Muslim respondents are more likely to cite droughts and competition for resources as causes. These differing perceptions contribute to the escalation. The researchers stress that the intensification of existing religious conflicts due to climate change can also be applied to other regions, such as the Sahel. They propose various political and practical countermeasures: policies are needed to address the consequences of drought (better water and land management, alternative sources of income, early warning systems), as are programs for confidence-building and conflict mediation in religiously mixed regions. This can prevent ecological crises from turning into violence.

The study “The Role of Droughts and Religious Cleavages in Pastoralist Conflict in Nigeria” was published as WZB Discussion Paper SP VI 2026–101. It was produced as part of the DeZIM research community and the TRANSMIT project, which is coordinated at the WZB by Daniel Meierrieks.

The authors:

Prof. Dr. Ruud Koopmans is Direktor of the of the Research Department Migration, Integration, Transnationalization at the WZB Berlin Science Center.

Dr. Daniel Meierrieks is Research Fellow of the Research Department Migration, Integration, Transnationalization. His research fields are international migration, terrorism, political violence, and development economics.

Dr. Daniel Tuki was a research fellow in the Department of Migration, Integration, and Transnationalization and now works as a Research Fellow at the University of Marburg. His research focuses on topics such as intercommunal conflicts, migration, and development economics.

---

Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Prof. Dr. Ruud Koopmans
Tel. 030/25491-451
Ruud.Koopmans@wzb.eu

Dr. Daniel Meierrieks
Tel. 030/25491-447
Daniel.Meierrieks@wzb.eu

Kerstin Schneider
Chefredakteurin Onlinekommunikation
Tel. 030/25491-506
kerstin.schneider@wzb.eu

---

Originalpublikation:
https://bibliothek.wzb.eu/pdf/2026/vi26-101.pdf

---

Weitere Informationen:
https://www.dezim-institut.de/en/projects/transmit-3-0-transnational-perspectives-on-migration-and-integration-7-18/