Europe's Refugee Population Stabilizes after a Decade of Growth
The refugee and asylum-seeker population in the European Union and the United Kingdom stabilized in 2025, after more than a decade of sustained growth. The total number of refugees and asylum seekers stood at 9.59 million, virtually unchanged from 9.58 million the previous year. This marks a significant shift from the rapid increases seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It follows a second consecutive annual decline in asylum applications, which fell to 770.000 in 2025, down from 1.01 million in 2024 and 1.1 million in 2023.
These are the main findings of a new report by the Centre for the Research and Analysis of Migration at the ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (CReAM@RFBerlin). "The period of rapid growth in Europe's refugee population appears to have come to an end," said Tommaso Frattini, Professor of Economics at the University of Milan and Deputy Director of CReAM@RFBerlin. "Refugee numbers remain historically high, but the forces shaping them are changing."
"What is particularly striking is that the overall stability of Europe's refugee population conceals very different national experiences," said Christian Dustmann, Director of RFBerlin and Professor of Economics at University College London. "Germany's decline is largely explained by naturalization and integration, whereas in Poland the numbers have stabilized because of a halt in inflows. These examples show that changes in refugee numbers cannot be interpreted simply as changes in arrivals or departures."
The stable overall figure masks substantial differences across countries. Germany, Europe's largest host country, recorded a decline of 4.7 percent in its refugee and asylum-seeker population, while Italy registered a decline of 17.9 percent. At the same time, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom continued to see increases.
The report shows that declining refugee numbers do not necessarily imply that refugees are leaving Europe. In Germany, the decline largely reflects lower inflows and the naturalization of earlier refugee groups, particularly Syrians and Iraqis, many of whom remain in the country but are no longer counted as refugees.
Across Europe, new asylum applications fell by almost 18 percent in 2025, with the sharpest decline among Syrians, who filed over 70 per cent fewer asylum applications following following the collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024. The numbers of applications also fell by 15 per cent for Afghans, by 46 per cent for Turks, by 60 per cent for Colombians and by 15 per cent for Bangladeshis. Of the major countries of origin, Venezuela is the exception: applications from Venezuelan citizens rose by 24 per cent to 91,000. More generally, refugee populations are increasingly shaped by naturalization, status changes, returns, and administrative processes rather than by large new inflows.
Looking ahead, developments in Ukraine will be crucial. Ukrainians account for nearly half of all refugees and asylum seekers in the EU and UK, so large-scale returns or changes to temporary-protection arrangements could substantially reduce Europe's refugee population. At the same time, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, due to take effect in 2026, is likely to strengthen border procedures and returns. The main uncertainty, however, remains geopolitical: a new major conflict near Europe could quickly reverse the current stabilization.
The analysis is based on figures from the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and Eurostat.
Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Prof. Christian Dustmann; cd@rfberlin.com; Tel.: 0044 7818 048 380
Prof. Tommaso Frattini; tf@rfberlin.com; Tel.: 0039 347 640 38 45
Originalpublikation:
"The Refugee Population in Europe in 2025: A Decade of Growth Comes to a Halt";
CReAM Report 05/2026; by Christian Dustmann, Tommaso Frattini, Camilla Piovesan and Giuseppe Pulito. https://www.rfberlin.com/cream-report/05-2026/
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