Job prospects decline sharply with the duration of unemployment
The chances of finding a new job decline sharply with the duration of unemployment. The probability of securing a new job falls from around 7 per cent per month at the outset to 4.5 per cent after a year of unemployment. This is the finding a new RFBerlin Research Insight by Rafael Lalive, Aderonke Osikominu, Lorenzo Pesaresi, Jeremy Zuchuat, and Josef Zweimüller. “As HR departments are reluctant to invite the long-term unemployed to interviews, job seekers gradually respond by submitting fewer applications – creating a self-reinforcing cycle of discouragement,” says Josef Zweimüller, project leader at RFBerlin and professor at the University of Zurich.
“The usual policy approach, which promotes retraining for workers, is not enough. Additional help with job-seeking could lead to better placement outcomes,” adds Aderonke Osikominu, RFBerlin Fellow and professor at the University of Hohenheim.
This is because the number of applications also falls as the duration of unemployment increases: after a year of unemployment, the average jobseeker sends out only 8 applications per month, compared to 11 at the start. The chances of securing an interview also decline with the duration of unemployment: the probability that an application will lead to an interview drops from around 5 per cent to 3.5 per cent within the first year.
Yet there is a glimmer of hope for the unemployed: if an interview does take place, the chance of receiving a job offer rises from around 20 per cent right after the beginning of unemployment to over 25 per cent after about a year of unemployment.
The study analysed 600,000 applications from 15,000 unemployed individuals in Switzerland.
Wissenschaftlicher Ansprechpartner:
Prof. Josef Zweimüller; 0041/ 44/ 634 37 27; josef.zweimueller@econ.uzh.ch
Prof. Aderonke Osikominu; 0049/ 711/ 459 22 931; a.osikominu@uni-hohenheim.de
Dr. Lorenzo Pesaresi; lorenzopesaresi95@gmail.com
Originalpublikation:
RFBerlin Reseach Insight: Why Job Finding Gets Harder the Longer Unemployment Lasts, by Rafael Lalive, Aderonke Osikominu, Lorenzo Pesaresi, Jeremy Zuchuat, and Josef Zweimüller; https://www.rfberlin.com/research-insight/
Weitere Informationen:
https://www.rfberlin.com/network-paper/duration-dependence-in-finding-a-job-applications-interviews-and-job-offers/ RFBerlin Discussion Paper 15/25: Duration Dependence in Finding a Job: Applications, Interviews, and Job Offers; by Rafael Lalive, Aderonke Osikominu, Lorenzo Pesaresi, Jeremy Zuchuat, and Josef Zweimüller https://
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